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Census predicts U.S. population will decrease without migrants: Hispanics one quarter of population by 2060

The U.S. Census Bureau predicted that due to the low birth rate and high immigration rate, the only way the American population has a credible chance of growing is from migration

Hispanic man embracing American flag
Hispanic man embracing American flag | Shutterstock

November 9, 2023 8:46am

Updated: November 9, 2023 9:24am

Hispanic Americans will constitute one quarter of the national population by the year 2060, according to U.S. Census Bureau projections published Thursday.

The current Latino population, which currently makes up about 1 in 5 Americans, is expected to continue growing for the next four decades, which means by the year 2060 more than 1 in 4 Americans will likely be Hispanic.

In 2060, the non-Hispanic White alone population is projected to decline to 44.9% in the middle series, 42.7% in the high-immigration scenario, 46.6% in the low-immigration scenario, and to 50.7% in the zero-immigration scenario,” the Census report said.

“At the same time, the Hispanic population is projected to increase to 26.9% in the middle series in 2060, 27.8% in the high-immigration scenario, 26.2% in the low-immigration scenario, and to 24.6% in the zero-immigration scenario.”

The Bureau predicted that due to the low birth rate and high immigration rate, the only way the U.S. population has a viable chance to grow is from migration.

Latinos are currently 19.1% of the U.S. population but are expected to increase to 26.9% of the population while the non-Hispanic white alone population is on track to decrease from 58.9% to 44.9%.

The non-Hispanic Black alone population is expected to remain at about 13% in 2060 in all of the immigration scenarios, the report indicated.

The census additionally reported that the general population of the United States will increase from 333 million to a high of nearly 370 million in 2080, but then dip downward to 366 million in the year 2100.

The new statistics, which are an update from the last numbers issued by the Census Bureau in 2017 offered some other surprises, namely a decrease in  population growth.

“The U.S. has experienced notable shifts in the components of population change over the last five years,” said U.S. Census Bureau demographer Sandra Johnson in a news release. “Some of these, like the increases in mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to be short-term while others, including the declines in fertility that have persisted for decades, are likely to continue into the future.”

The Bureau’s conclusions are based on four different sets of projections that take into account a combination of births, deaths and the pace of the migrant flow from other countries.

“By 2100, the total population in the middle series is projected to reach 366 million compared to the projection for the high-immigration scenario, which puts the population at 435 million. The population for the middle series increases to a peak at 370 million in 2080 and then begins to decline, dropping to 366 million in 2100. The high-immigration scenario increases every year and is projected to reach 435 million by 2100,” the report reads.

While the Bureau considered different outcomes for high, low and zero migrant flow, it took into account the fact that today’s larger population is getting older, and there will be a decrease in fertility.

This will more than likely lead to more deaths than births throughout the United States, making migration flow the major contributing factor to U.S. population growth.

“The low-immigration scenario is projected to peak at around 346 million in 2043 and decline thereafter, dropping to 319 million in 2100. Though largely illustrative, the zero-immigration scenario projects that population declines would start in 2024 in the complete absence of foreign-born immigration. The population in this scenario is projected to be 226 million in 2100, roughly 107 million lower than the 2022 estimate.”

ADN America has previously reported that an average of one million Hispanics are reaching the voter eligible age of 18 every year, exponentially amplifying the power of the Hispanic vote.

Citing a recent analysis conducted by the Pew Research Center, ADN reported that the number of eligible Hispanic American voters has increased by 4.7 million since 2018, according to.

The timing of the Pew Research Center report coincided with other news that Hispanic Americans also recently surpassed the non-Hispanic white majority in Texas.

Executive Editor

Gelet Martínez Fragela

Gelet Martínez Fragela is the founder and editor-in-chief of ADN America. She is a Cuban journalist, television producer, and political refugee who also founded ADN Cuba.