Technology
SpaceX rocket projected to crash into the 'Dark Side of the Moon' at 5,000 mph
Most second stage boosters disintegrate in atmosphere and falls back to Earth. This 4 ton booster will finish its seven year mission on the moon
January 29, 2022 10:49am
Updated: March 3, 2022 1:36pm
The second stage of a Falcon 9 rocket launched by SpaceX in 2015 is reportedly out of control in an erratic orbit—and is expected to collide into the moon at 5,000 mph, according to an Ars Technica report.
The rocket, which was initially launched to send the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Deep Space Climate Observatory into a faraway orbit. Usually the second stage booster disintegrates in atmosphere as it falls back to Earth.
In this particular instance however, lack of fuel [prevented] the second stage, four-ton booster from returning to Earth’s atmosphere, leaving it to lose control in an unpredictable orbit with its seven year mission ending on dark side of the moon—in pieces.
Bill Gray, a software developer who tracks space objects near Earth’s atmosphere predicted on his website the Falcon 9 rocket will collide with the moon’s surface on March 4.
“If this were a rock, I’d be 100% certain… But space junk can be a little tricky. I have a fairly complete mathematical model of what the Earth, moon, sun, and planets are doing and how their gravity is affecting the object. I have a rough idea of how much sunlight is pushing outward on the object, gently pushing it away from the sun. This usually enables me to make predictions with a good bit of confidence.”
Gray added that he’s been working to try and determine where the Falcon 9 will actually impact the lunar surface so NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and India’s Chandrayaan-2 lunar orbiter will have the opportunity to capture imaging of the event and aftermath.
According to Digital Trends, “The event will mark the first time for a man-made object to unintentionally crash onto the lunar surface. A deliberate impact took place in 2009 when a NASA Centaur rocket and accompanying probe were sent hurtling toward the moon in a mission aimed at locating water on Earth’s nearest neighbor.”
The site added that SpaceX is developing landing hardware for NASA’s future Artemis missions that are hoping to see the first crewed moon landing since Apollo 17 in 1972.
Gray also added that sometimes space junk can hit Earth.
“A very small bit (never really solidly identified) re-entered the atmosphere near Sri Lanka in November 2015. Two Chinese lunar mission boosters, for Queqiao and Chang'e 5, re-entered over the Pacific Ocean. The latter looks as if it was deliberately planned to go past the moon, come back, and plunge in the middle of the ocean, far from land. I am hoping it means CNSA [China National Space Administration] has decided not to leave their junk flying around, but they are unlikely to ever say anything about it.
“Such an impact over land would look very dramatic (a bright, slow-moving meteor). I don't think anything would survive re-entry, but would not want to swear to that.”
Gray concluded his observations with some levity, adding, “I know a lot about figuring out orbits, but not much about the survivability of rocket boosters. Or, if you prefer, I'm not a rocket surgeon.”