Mexico's leftist president poised to win referendum on his rule

Mexico’s leftist President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has long criticized his country’s electoral authorities, often accusing them of widespread voter fraud in the 2006 and 2012 elections.

But in a bid to consolidate power and secure his popular mandate, the Aztec nation’s president has been promising voters that they will be given a chance to evaluate his performance on April 10 in a recall referendum on whether he should finish out his singular six-year term – a move which critics have warned could serve as a distraction from his administrations many failures.

"It reaffirms the principle that the people are sovereign, that they are the ones in charge," Lopez Obrador said of the vote late last year. "Conservatives don't like it."

Although a March 2022 poll showed that it is unlikely that the 40% voter turnout required to make the result binding could be achieved, 63% of those polled said 'yes' when asked if they believed AMLO should finish out his term, signaling that the Mexican leader is poised to win the referendum with help from his supporters.

"The first strange fact about the vote is that the people who are organizing it are people who like the president," said journalist, lawyer, and political analyst Fernanda Caso. "You would think that in a recall it would be the opposition who would ask for it."

Lopez Obrador has enjoyed popular support (currently hovering at around 60%) since winning the 2018 election in a landslide and opposition voices have said that the referendum is a waste of public money and should be ignored.

A victor in the polls would, after all, allow AMLO to brush off his political shortcomings and failed campaign promises which included the reduction of cartel violence and an increase in economic growth.

Roberto Romero, a 42-year-old graphic designer from Mexico City, voted for AMLO in 2018 but said he was disappointed by the government and unlikely to participate in the referendum.

"I have a lot of friends who voted for Lopez Obrador who say they're going to look for a different option," he said.