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Republican Adam Laxalt up 8 points with Latinos in Nevada, says new poll

The former Nevada attorney general leads by 2 points overall.

Adam Laxalt won the Nevada Republican primary for U.S. Senate
Adam Laxalt ganó las primarias republicanas de Nevada para el Senado estadounidense | Adam Laxalt for U.S. Senate

September 23, 2022 4:04pm

Updated: September 29, 2022 1:23pm

Former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, the Republican candidate for Senate, has an 8-point lead over his Democratic opponent, incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, according to a new poll released Thursday.

The poll, conducted by independent pollster Rich Baris, found when asked if the election for U.S. Senate was held today, 49% of Nevada Hispanics would vote for Laxalt and 41% for Cortez Masto. The remaining were undecided or would choose a third-party candidate.

This tracks with earlier reports that Nevada Hispanics have become disillusioned with President Joe Biden. A July poll found Hispanics voters in Nevada would choose both former President Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Biden.

Remarkably, Laxalt also held a 20-point advantage with Nevada independents – 52% to Cortez Masto’s 32%. Parties remained largely loyal to their candidates with 91% of Democrats saying they would vote for Cortez Masto and 86% of Republicans choosing Laxalt.

Baris’s survey found Laxalt leading by 2 points among all respondents with 46% of the vote, compared to Cortez Masto’s 44%. This margin is in line with other polls released the same day – InsiderAdvantage put Laxalt 3 points up, Trafalgar at 4 points up and Data For Progress at just 1 point up.

The poll found Republicans ahead in the Nevada gubernatorial race as well, with GOP candidate Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo at 42% and the incumbent, Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, at 40%. But Lombardo enjoyed a smaller advantage with Latinos than Laxalt – only 3 points, 40% to 37%.

Baris has been criticized for a right-wing bias. The independent pollster has fired back by saying mainstream institution’s own left-wing skew is to blame for poor accuracy in recent elections, which damages the credibility of the entire industry.

“This industry is dominated by left-wingers,” Baris told the New York Post shortly after the 2020 election. “And a big, big problem is they’re trying to profile the voting behavior of people they don’t understand and may even despise.”

The Post noted Baris’ Big Data Poll and other conservative-leaning pollsters like Trafalgar and Susquehanna managed to come closer to the Election Day results than leading media outlets.

For example, Baris’ final poll of Florida gave Trump a 2-point lead – one point off his 3-point victory the day of – while the New York Times predicted a 3-point win for then-candidate Biden.