GOP ahead in 6 states on generic congressional ballot

The Republican party is leading in six battleground states less than a month out from the midterm elections, according to a new poll released Friday.

The poll, conducted by Rasmussen Reports, found Republicans ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin when likely voters were asked the generic ballot question: “If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate?”

The largest GOP lead was in Georgia, where they lead democrats by an 11-point margin on the generic ballot question, 50% to 39%. 65% of likely voters in the state think the country is on the wrong track.

The smallest Republican edge was in Arizona, where they are only three points up over Democrats, 47% to 44%. They also led by six points in Ohio, five in Pennsylvania, and four in Michigan and Wisconsin.

The report attributed the GOP edge to President Joe Biden’s "sagging" approval rating and economic issues. It noted that Biden’s approval rating is just 41% in three of the states where Republicans are ahead – Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. His approval is 46% Michigan, and 43% in both Ohio and Wisconsin.

A Morning Consult poll released Wednesday found Biden’s net approval rating – the share who approve of his job performance minus the share who disapprove – is underwater in 45 states.

Rasmussen has been criticized for a right-wing bias, with FiveThirtyEight reporting the firm has a R +1.5 mean-reverted bias.

But Rich Baris, an independent pollster who retweeted the Rasmussen poll, has fired back on accusations of conservative bias by arguing mainstream institutions’ own left-wing skew is to blame for inaccurate polling in recent elections, which damages the credibility of the entire industry.

“This industry is dominated by left-wingers,” Baris told the New York Post shortly after the 2020 election. “And a big, big problem is they’re trying to profile the voting behavior of people they don’t understand and may even despise.”

Rasmussen reports that Republicans are now seven points up on the generic congressional ballot question nationwide, 48% to 41%. This is a three point jump from last week.