Biden's net approval rating underwater in 45 states

A new poll released Thursday found President Joe Biden is underwater on job performance in 45 of 50 states, which suggests Democrats are in for a “shellacking” if voters see the midterms as a referendum on the White House.

The poll, conducted by the Morning Consult, found that the president’s net approval rating – the share who approve of his job performance minus the share who disapprove – declined the most in Utah, Alaska, Hawaii and Oregon between the second and third quarters of 2022.

Eli Yokley, senior reporter for Morning Consult, noted that Biden was underwater by double digits in states critical for Democrats maintaining control of Senate.

“Solid majorities of voters disapprove of Biden’s job performance in Arizona (58%), Nevada (56%), New Hampshire (60%), North Carolina (58%), Ohio (60%), Pennsylvania (58%) and Wisconsin (57%),” wrote Yokely.

“In each of these states, voters are at least twice as likely to ‘strongly disapprove’ of Biden than they are to strongly approve of him. It’s a severe warning sign for Democrats: If voters who head to the polls in November are chiefly motivated by Biden’s job performance, Republicans can expect a turnout advantage.”

The president’s net approval rating is still positive in Vermont, California, Maryland, New York and Massachusetts. The poll noted that Biden’s numbers were worse in July, before they improved in August and leveled out in September.

The Morning Consult poll found evidence that Biden’s drag on vulnerable Democrats may be offset by cross-party voters in their states.

“Kelly, once seen as the most vulnerable Senate Democrat, is outpacing Biden’s approval rating 50% to 40%, and far fewer voters are giving the freshman lawmaker negative marks (42% to 58%),” wrote Yokley.

This aligns with a poll the Morning Consult released yesterday which found that the three most popular U.S. governors are Republicans in blue states.