Silver State shift: Nevada Hispanics swing right amid concerns about inflation and immigration

Nevada Hispanics are swinging right these days amid concerns about immigration and inflation, according to a new report published by Governance, a Stateside news site that is part of the Tribune News Service (TNS) and figures collected by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO).

According to NALEO, an estimated 1 in 5 voters in Nevada are Latino, a number that coincides with the national growth projected by the Pew Research Center, which reports the Hispanic voting class is growing by 1.4 million new, young voters a year.

Those numbers stand to have a powerful impact in this year’s election since about 57% of Hispanic and Latino households in Nevada are middle class, according to a recent Stateline study.

Many of those households, Governance reports are encountering a shift to the right due to their concerns about illegal immigration and the high cost of living.

“Here in Nevada, where a larger share of Hispanic people have made it into the middle class than in any other state, some see inflation and immigration as reasons to reconsider their long-held loyalty to the Democratic Party,” Governance reports.

Henderson writes that the Silver State has emerged as a place where those starting out in low level service positions in casinos, restaurants and resorts can work their way up to higher positions and covet success.

“Many Hispanics who started out doing that kind of work have reached the middle class, but they are worried about crippling housing costs and the arrival of new immigrants who they fear might compete for jobs,” the Governance reporter explained.

That conservative shift has already been evidence in the 2022 election of Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, a law and order candidate who swept the gubernatorial race after serving for eight years as Clark County Sheriff from 2023.

Lombardo sent a clear pro-business message immediately upon being sworn in by issuing executive orders that eliminated the remaining COVID-19 restrictions, removing regulations on business and suspending new regulations from executive agencies.

He has signed a bill to fund a new $1.5 billion ballpark for the relocation of the Oakland Athletics to Las Vegas and suspended minimum qualification requirements for state jobs during the first 90 days as a way to spark new hiring.

Lombardo may be partially responsible for the shift. He recently addressed Nevada’s Latin Chamber of Commerce where he spoke about his push to remove licensing requirements for jobs and made his case for vetoing recent Democratic bills proposing rent control.

Amid Lombardo’s rise, Democrats have seen a plunge in support. While the Democratic Party was able to shift the once crimson state from red to blue between 2008 to 2020, Lombardo’s victory gave hope to Republicans that the Silver State was looking bright.

Nevadans also reelected their Democratic senator, Catherine Cortez Masto by a razor thin margin by only 8,000 votes.

Before Vice President Kamala Harris stepped in as President Biden’s replacement this year, an NBC report suggested that Latino voters were favoring former President Donald Trump. Since then, a new poll published by Newsweek now shows Harris with a lead over Trump among Hispanic voters.

Other polls published by Fox News show Trump and Harris almost even as they battle it out for the Latino vote in the Silver State.

The Governance story interviewed several Hispanic voters who say “Republican attacks blaming the Biden-Harris administration for inflation and illegal immigration are resonating with them.”

One interviewee, Margarita Valdovinos, a businesswoman who sells jewelry told the Tribune news site that, “something’s got to change,” as she struggles to make rent payments. She said while Trump was not always right and had “some issues,” she admired that, “he has no fear and he’s not afraid to fight.’

Clarissa Martinez De Castro, vice president of the Latino Vote Initiative, part of the nonpartisan Hispanic advocacy group UnidosUS said that immigration has become an issue of growing importance.

“You are seeing Republicans regain some of the support they lost, and you’re also seeing an increasing number of Latinos in the independent column, so some of that is taking away from traditional Democratic support, but it’s not necessarily translating to Republican support,” Martinez De Castro she told the TNS.

Peter Guzman, director of the state’s Latin Chamber of Commerce, speaking at a luncheon in Las Vegas before Biden dropped out of the race, said Hispanics have become more disenchanted with Democrats without fully embracing Republicans.

“Hispanics are not running to one party, but they’re definitely paying attention and moving away from one party and kind of hanging out in the independent middle,” Guzman explained.

According to a 2024 Pew Research Center analysis, about 35% of Hispanics identified as Republican in 2023, a significant climb from 2016’s numbers of only 29%.