GOP’s near-historic lead in trust is bad news for Democrats, says CNN analyst

More Americans believe that Republicans are better suited to solve their most important issue than Democrats – a dire warning for liberals hoping to keep control of Congress, according to a CNN data analyst.

Voters have different answers to what they believe is the most important problem facing the country – the economy, inequality, abortion, etc.

But CNN Senior Data Reporter Harry Enten highlighted a recent Gallup poll that asks a question few other firms do: “Which political party do you think can do a better job of handling the problem you think is most important?

The Gallup poll found that, in Sept 2022, 48% of Americans believe the Republican party is better equipped to handle their most important issue, while 37% believe it is the Democratic party.

“This 11-point Republican edge is one of the best they have ever had. Looking at 20 midterm elections since 1946 when this question was asked, only once has the Republican Party had a larger advantage on this question,” said Enten, who also hosts CNN’s Margins of Error podcast.

The only time the GOP held a larger lead in a midterm year was in 1946, when they had a 17 point lead over the Democrats – the same year they gained a net 55 House seats.

Enten notes that the correlation between House seats won by Republicans and their lead on this question is “far from perfect” (+.07 on a scale of -1 to 1). But he continues to explain that Republicans ended up with 230 of 435 seats in the five midterm years they held a lead on this trust question since 1946, compared to an average 189 seats in the four midterm years they were behind.

When asked what they believed is the most important problem facing the country today, 22% Americans said it was the government/poor leadership, 17% said the high cost of living/inflation and 12% pointed to the economy in general. The next four were non-economic social issues – immigration (6%), race relations/racism (5%), unifying the country (4%) and abortion (4%).

The CNN analyst wrote that abortion may be fading as an important issue, falling from a peak of 8% in July after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade – the highest it has been since Gallup began measuring it.

“Additionally, the percentage of Americans who listed the judicial system/courts/laws as the most important problem dropped from 5% in July to 2% now,” said Enten.