Taiwan is studying Ukraine war in case China invades

Military experts in Taiwan have been closely watching Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to refine its own battle strategy in the event China attempts to take its small, democratic neighbor by force.

Reuters reports that Taiwan has a keen interest in the Ukraine conflict amid escalating tensions with its much larger neighbor, especially in the defender’s use of “asymmetric warfare” – tactics used when two forces have a large difference in military power. Examples include guerilla tactics and missile launchers that can be moved easily.

"Ukraine's military has been making full use of asymmetric warfare, very effectively, and so far successfully holding off Russia's advance," said Ma Cheng-Kun, director of the Graduate Institute of China Military Affairs Studies at Taiwan's National Defence University.

Ma, who is also an advisor to the government on China policy, said that Taiwan’s military has been developing portable weapons for the same reason, such as the lightweight anti-armor Kestrel rocket launcher designed for urban combat.

"From Ukraine's performance we can be even more confident in our own,” added Ma. 

The forces of Russian President Vladimir Putin have stalled around the cities of Ukraine due to logistical challenges and a fierce resistance that has rallied behind Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Morale has reportedly fallen amongst the Russian invaders, as many expected the war to be over quickly. 

China considers Taiwan, founded by forces fleeing Communists, a renegade breakaway state and began pressuring allies and international businesses to remove all references to the island in 2018. The U.S. does formally recognize Taiwan but maintains an unofficial alliance. 

Also of interest was Russia’s use of precision missiles against Ukrainian cities at the beginning of the invasion. Taiwan’s air force is dwarfed by China’s, so it will rely on surface-launched missiles to threaten inland Chinese targets.

Taiwan’s defense ministry announced last week that it plans to more than double its annual missile production capacity. It continues to develop missiles that can reach further into China, such as the Hsiung Sheng land-attack missile.

The self-ruled island benefits from the Taiwan Straight as a natural barrier that separates it from mainland China, while Ukraine shares a long land border with Russia. This provides extra time to detect Chinese military movements ahead of any invasion.

As the world’s leading producer of semiconductors, Taiwan hopes its importance in the global supply chain will also deter a Chinese attack.

However, President Joe Biden’s resistance to sending U.S. troops to Ukraine has some Taiwanese wary.

"Do people in Taiwan really think now that the West and the United States will still come to save us?" said Chao Chien-min, a former deputy head of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council now at Taiwan's Chinese Culture University.