Mexico City's leftist mayor could face rising conservative star in nation's upcoming presidential election

With the rise of Claudia Sheinbaum in presidential polls, many media outlets have speculated the former Mexico City Mayor could soon emerge as the country’s first female president in the upcoming 2024 election.

One recent poll however, which places the 61-year old MORENA female candidate at the top of the list in her own political party, also shows the dynamic young Mayor of Monterey leading the country’s conservative opposition party.

That survey, conducted by polling firm Buendia & Marquez, was published this week by Mexican newspaper, El Universal. It polled 1,000 nationals and depicted Sheinbaum leading MORENO with 35%.

That’s a whopping 13-point lead ahead of her closest opponent, Marcelo Ebrard, the country’s former foreign minister.

Sheinbaum is the leading nominee of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), a left wing political party founded in 2011 by the country’s current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. She was born of Jewish parents in Mexico City with grandparents who emigrated from Europe in the 1940s to escape the Holocaust. 

On the other side of the spectrum is 38-year old rising star Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas, a lawyer and the mayor of Monterey who currently leads the Citizens Movement (CM), a conservative political party founded in 1998. 

Colosio Riojas, who has not yet formally announced his presidential candidacy, is the son of Mexican economist Luis Donaldo Colosio Murrieta, a former PRI presidential candidate who was assassinated in 1994 at a Tijuana campaign rally.

PRI, also known as the Institutional Revolutionary Party is the center-right political party of past president Vicente Fox, who was known for his international partnership with then President George W. Bush. 

With less than a month before primary elections, speculation has soared across Mexico that the country of nearly 129 million may soon see its first female president. 

Sheinbaum and Ebrard are both widely viewed as likely successors to López Obrador in his position as MORENA party leader.

They both hold a strong lead ahead of many of the other party’s contenders, such as former Interior Minister Adan Augusto Lopez, ranked at 7%.

Since MORENA is the country's dominant political party, many mainstream media outlets have suggested whomever wins the party's primary will most likely be the country's next president. 

“MORENA, lifted by the strong personal approval ratings of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, is heavily favored to win the June 2024 election. That has prompted many analysts to view the MORENA contest as an almost de facto presidential race,” says a Reuters report republished by NBC Latino published on Aug. 16.

The poll also reported that both candidates appeared to have equal exposure with Sheinbaum being recognized by 69% of respondents and Ebrard, 70%.

Both of the leftist party candidates resigned from their official positions earlier this year to take their changes in the MORENO party primary, which began June 19 and is expected to finish by Sept. 6.

The Mexican voter survey was conducted from Aug. 10 to Aug. 14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.53 percentage points, according to the Buendia & Marquez.

An earlier survey published in June by Buendia & Marquez had Sheinbaum polling with a 12-point lead with 34% support and Ebrard with 22% suggesting the former Mexico City mayor has pulled ahead one percentage point since then.

Sheinbaum could be Mexico’s first female president if she prevails in the upcoming MORENO primary, but she will still face the challenge of overcoming an opposition candidate in the 2024 general election.

Other polls suggest that National Action Party (PAN) Senator Xóchitl Gálvez could win the nomination for an alliance of leading opposition parties. She is known for her bold tactics, and has never hesitated to challenge Mexico’s current president in public settings.