How does the Russia-Ukraine conflict affect Mexico?

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine involves powers such as the United States and the European Union, as well as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Mexico is also affected in the short and long term by this situation, according to the eminent Mexican ambassador, Martha Bárcena.

"Mexico does consider that what is happening on the Ukraine-Russia border may constitute a threat to international peace and security." The country "reiterated the need to respect the unity and territorial integrity of Ukraine" as a member of the United Nations Security Council, she said in an interview with Infobae.

The Latin American country could also be affected economically, as the conflict has also led to increases in oil prices.

"To a certain extent [the conflict] is benefiting Mexico, because the budget for 2022 was calculated with a price of 55 dollars a barrel and now it is at more than 80 dollars. This means that Mexico, for each barrel of exports, is receiving more money than expected," said the ambassador.

However, this may also lead to a shift in the world energy market. Russia is currently the main supplier of gas to Europe, through pipelines. But the gas market is beginning to shift towards the consumption of so-called liquefied natural gas, and its main exporter is the United States.

"It is very clear to all Mexicans that Mexico's economic development is intrinsically linked to the United States." In spite of this, Bárcena indicated that the Russians "understand very well where Mexico stands and would never think of putting pressure in any other direction".

From the Mexican ambassador's perspective, the current conflict centers on Moscow's demand that Ukraine's entry into NATO is denied.

"The security visions of Russia, the United States, and NATO are different. Russia still thinks of the concept of security through the so-called spheres of influence; it considers that its security is related to the non-installation of Western military forces on its borders and that to achieve that, it is necessary that Ukraine never be admitted to NATO," Barcena explained.

The ambassador warned that NATO itself has previously stated that it will not accept countries that have problems with their borders. Russia unilaterally annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014, implying a conflict that would affect Ukraine's eventual membership.

The governments of the United States and Germany reiterated on Monday their determination to seek a diplomatic solution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, although they also mentioned their willingness to sanction Moscow in case it invades Ukrainian territory.

"We are working to seek a diplomatic solution, which is the best solution for everyone, including Russia," U.S. President Joe Biden said at a news conference alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.