Putin's dilemma: How to admit defeat?

It’s no secret that more than 80% of Russia’s military forces are bogged down in battle and lacks the necessary reserves to sustain the attrition suffered since the Kremlin first ordered the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.

It seems, therefore, that Russian President Vladimir Putin is driving his country towards a military defeat in Ukraine – and his brakes might be broken.

Putin ultimately underestimated Ukraine’s heroic desire to be an independent European democracy and overestimated the military might of his armed forces. Now, he appears to be caught in a difficult dilemma: How to end the war without admitting military or diplomatic defeat?

In Russia’s political culture, it’s impossible to survive in power after losing on the battlefield – or on the world’s political stage. The reality is that the Russian military can either sustain the massacre of civilians for a short time longer and lose with criminal humiliation or instead negotiate a quick exit that dilutes the defeat.

But Putin’s unpredictable temper makes knowing what will come next hard to predict.

Since Russia first invaded, the Ukrainian army and thousands of civilian volunteers from across Ukraine (and the world) have stood firm in the defense of cities across the country – and most recently fought to defend the capital, Kyiv, after Russian tanks advanced on the city in the early hours of Monday, March 14, arriving near Maidan Square, where they were pushed back and forced to retreat.

For several hours, both sides fought viciously – but the Ukrainians held firm and made good use of their heroic determination and Western weaponry, including javelins, drones and stinger missiles.

Indeed, the Ukrainian army is making good use of Western weapons which are strategically beneficial for urban warfare.

The American-made FGM-148 Javelin missile, for example, weights 6.4 kg and has a range of 2.5 km and can penetrate and destroy the armor of any Russian tank. As a weapon, it is also remarkably easy and safe to use. Furthermore, its technology is extremely precise, and its infrared system automatically finds targets once fired – deploying two charges that go off in succession, the first piercing the armor and the second destroying the tank’s interior and crew.   

But as Russian advances on important Ukrainian cities – including Kyiv – continue to fail and Russian casualties continue to grow, room for maneuverability has continued to decrease for the Russians and every step forward costs more as they continue to gain less.

The logistical disaster can perhaps best be seen in the lack of fuel and food reported on the ground. These equipment blunders have made it possible for Ukrainian forces to quickly move reinforcements to strategic points in their defenses.  

Ukrainian cities continue to resist occupation, refusing to surrender even as Russian bombs continue to target civilian centers. The port city of Mariupol, surrounded for more than two weeks by a criminal ring of cannons, missiles and air power, remains standing as residents continue to fight for their freedom.

Putin, of course, did not expect such heavy civilian resistance and expected a quick victory for his armies – a seriously strategic blunder, indeed.

In the battlefield, Ukrainian soldiers continue to use unmanned aerial combat vehicles (drones) to target Russian positions and have been very successful in destroying a vast number of enemy targets. Drones have created a new dimension in the “art of war” because they transmit intelligence in real time, identify areas of danger and have the ability to attack with absolute precision and destroy enemy targets.

Presently, Ukraine’s drone fleet is made up primarily of Turkish-made Bayraktar drones, which Kyiv began purchasing in 2020. This drone has brought about an aerial revolution by integrating a lethal, inexpensive, small and advanced electronic capability system into an easy to use system. The Bayraktar is not the only drone flying over Ukrainian skies, however, and the United States, England, France and Germany have also provided Kyiv with the newest drone technology to use in its fight against Putin’s invading armies.

Russia’s dictator Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine on February 24, assuming it would be a short-lived conflict – perhaps expecting a surrender within hours. Three weeks later, however, the Russian army continues to face unmatched resistance led by Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky – a former comedian who has proven to be a charismatic communicator and a courageous war-time leader.

In an emotional address to the U.S. Congress on March 16, Zelensky once again demonstrated practicality and conviction by directly asking for weapons and materials to continue Ukraine’s fight for independence from the Russian invaders.

When NATO leaders offered the young president a way out of Kyiv in order to establish a government away from the frontlines, Zelensky bravely stated, “I need ammunition, not a ride,” emphasizing that Ukraine would not surrender.

“You will see our faces, not our backs,” he added, in a message meant for the Russians.  

Still today, Putin is mired in a quagmire of military incompetence and has become an international pariah in the process. His actions have also brought down the economic might of the West against his nation’s economy by means of sanctions and embargos and the Russian economy is spiraling into an unprecedented financial crisis.

"Russia's bankruptcy is no longer an unlikely event," IMF chief Cristalina Georgiera.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently told reporters that “Putin made a strategic mistake and will lose the war.”

Ultimately, the battle for Kyiv will define the conflict – but the more violent and cruel the Russian invasion becomes, the greater Ukraine’s resistance will surely become. Never again will Ukraine be a vassal state of Moscow – engraved with the blood of heroes, Ukraine will always be independent.