Jair Bolsonaro will fly to Moscow as war looms over Europe

The fear of immanent war over Ukraine will not stop Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro from flying to Moscow on Tuesday to meet with President Vladimir Putin to discuss bilateral trade relations between their two countries.

Although the conservative South American leader has dismissed fears that Putin could try to spin the visit to appear as a show of support on Ukraine from Brazil, analysts have warned that the meeting could become a diplomatic disaster if Bolsonaro allows the subject to veer away from the subject of trade relations.

“The timing is terrible,” said Guilherme Casaroes, a political analyst at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Brazil.

“We don’t know what’s going happen. Things are going to be more and more intense at the (Russia-Ukraine) border.”

Bolsonaro first accepted the invitation to visit the Kremlin in late November, when tension over Ukraine was already building, and decided to combine it with a diplomatic visit to Hungary, where he will travel on Thursday.

But the situation between Russia and the West has since deteriorated and U.S. officials have pressured Brazil’s president to stay home.

Felipe Loureiro, a professor of international relations at the University of Sao Paulo, said that “the U.S. exerted a lot of pressure on Brasilia to call off the trip,” but noted that canceling now would signal that “Brazil is a puppet of the U.S.” – potentially angering the Kremlin.

Bolsonaro, however, reaffirmed on Saturday that he had no plans of cancelling the visit, even ahead of the warnings of war breaking out “at any time.”

“We ask God that peace reign in the world, for the good of all of us,” Bolsonaro said.

Officially, the talks will focus on Russian investments in hydrocarbons and infrastructure in Brazil, as well as trade.

But Bolsonaro could pay a price if he antagonizes Brazil’s traditional allies during the trip.

“Bolsonaro is unpredictable. If he says something that somehow supports Russia, it would create a lot of problems for Brazil with Europe and especially the US,” said Loureiro.

 U.S. officials also advised Bolsonaro to treat carefully in Moscow.

“As democratic countries… we have a responsibility to stand up for democratic principles and for the rules-based order,” said U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price, adding that Washington was “confident that there will be discussions, both before and after the trip, with our Brazilian partners.”