Stampede! More than a million voters switch to the GOP

A political shift in the number of voters who have registered as Republicans in the past year could put Democrats in a difficult situation in the next election, according to voter census data analyzed by The Associated Press in 43 states. 

The most striking change, according to AP, is seen in the suburban areas previously dominated by President Joe Biden in the last election, which were highly educated families who opposed Donald Trump. But today, tens of thousands of voters who helped deliver a Democratic victory appear to be returning to the GOP, especially in suburban areas ranging from Denver to Atlanta and in the Rust Belt from Pittsburgh to Cleveland. 

To make matters worse for Democrats, Republicans also gained ground in counties around mid-sized cities such as Harrisburg (Pennsylvania), Raleigh (North Carolina), Augusta (Georgia), and Des Moines (Iowa).

But, the pattern is not confined to the suburbs. 

Since the last presidential election in 2020, the shift has been occurring in cities and small towns alike.

In all, more than one million voters in 43 states have moved to the Republican Party in the last year. Of the 1.7 million voters who changed their party affiliation, more than a million registered as Republicans compared to about 630,000 who became Democrats.

A political shift could also be taking hold in the Latino community if the rest of the country follows examples like what occurred in the Rio Grande Valley last month, where Republican Mayra Flores won a House seat in South Texas, in an area where 84% of the population is Hispanic, the first victory for the party there in more than 150 years.

For Ben Smith, a Colorado-area voter, the shift is more a rejection of the Democratic Party's left-wing policies than an embrace of the right. 

Smith, whose transition from the Democratic Party began five or six years ago when he registered as a Libertarian told AP he reluctantly registered as a Republican earlier this year after becoming increasingly concerned about Democrats' support in some towns for mandatory COVID-19 vaccinations, the party's inability to crack down on violent crime and its prevalent focus on racial justice.

According to the AP, while party switching is not uncommon, the data indicate a “clear reversal from the period while Trump was in office when Democrats enjoyed a slight advantage in the number of party switchers nationally.”

While one million voters is a small portion of the overall U.S. electorate and do not ensure widespread Republican success in the November midterm elections, the trend in party switchers poses a dangerous warning for Democrats.