Politics
Republicans outperforming 2018 numbers among minorities
But this did not necessarily mean support for Democrats fell
November 2, 2022 1:00pm
Updated: November 2, 2022 6:29pm
The GOP is doing better with Hispanics and Black voters on a generic ballot test compared to 2018, which a new poll says may weigh on Democrat’s electoral standing not just in next week’s midterms, but possibly 2024’s presidential race.
The poll, released by the Morning Consult on Wednesday, found that when asked if they were more likely to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in the upcoming midterm elections, 33% of Hispanics voters said they would vote for the Republican, a five-point shift from the 27% who said the same in 2018.
Blacks also showed a five-point jump on the generic ballot question from 2018 to 2022, 7% then to 13% now. Among other voters of color, such as Asian Americans and American Indians, those who preferred the GOP candidate rose from 31% to 34%.
But support for Democrats also rose slightly over the same period for all racial and ethnic groups, meaning much of the gains came from undecided voters.
But Eli Yokley, senior reporter at Morning Consult, said that the growth in Republican support comes amid an ideological shift away from liberals, especially among voters without college degrees.
“But a drift away from the left’s ideology does not automatically equate to GOP votes: Between 2018 and 2022, the Democrats’ advantage on the generic ballot has not fallen proportionally among these voters,” wrote Yokley.
“While there were double-digit declines in the shares of Black and Hispanic voters without college degrees who identify as liberal, for example, the Democratic Party’s declines among these voters were smaller.”
The movement away from Democrats by Hispanic and Black voters was similar to that of whites, around 4 to 5 points toward the GOP.
An interesting finding was that Black voters of all education levels – those without college degrees, those with one, and those a masters or PhD – all shifted away from Democrats between 2018 and 2020. Support for Democrats among white and Hispanic voters with a masters or PhD rose over the same period.
