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Post-midterm polls show DeSantis overtaking Trump for 2024

They indicate support for Trump is slipping as Republicans look to explain how an expected “red wave” arrived as a puddle.

November 15, 2022 12:16pm

Updated: November 15, 2022 4:42pm

A series of polls show former President Donald Trump losing ground to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his top rival in the 2024 presidential primary, after his favored candidates fell short in last week’s midterm elections.

The conservative Club for Growth released polling Monday that showed Trump trailing DeSantis, who blew out his Democratic challenger for governor by almost 20 points, in four early primary states. The findings from the Nov. 11-13 survey were shared alongside numbers from their similar poll in August.

When asked which of the two candidates they preferred for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, DeSantis held a 11-point lead among likely Iowa Republican caucus voters (48% to 37% for Trump) and a 15-point lead in a hypothetical New Hampshire contest (52% to Trump’s 37%) – the first two Republican primary elections.

The popular Florida governor also expanded his lead over Trump in his home state’s primary contest, expanding a 7-point margin in August to a whopping 26 points up after the midterms among likely voters.

DeSantis also grew his lead in Georgia, a state that rejected calls from Trump to overturn its 2020 election results. 55% of likely Republican caucus voters said they would choose DeSantis, compared to 35% for Trump.

Once a staunch Trump ally, the Club for Growth has recently broken with the former president. Their rift was most visible in the Ohio and Pennsylvania GOP Senate primaries, where the anti-tax organization unsuccessfully opposed Trump’s choices – author J.D. Vance and celebrity physician Mehmet Oz, respectively.

Their poll was not the only one to indicate support for Trump slipping as Republicans look to explain how an expected “red wave” arrived as a puddle.

A YouGov poll conducted in the days after Election Day 2022 found that 42% of Republicans and Republican-leaners would rather see DeSantis as the 2024 Republican presidential nominee, while 35% want Trump to try again. The former president’s support was strongest among those who identified as “strong Republicans” and weakest among independents who lean Republican.

And on Tuesday, Prosperity PAC released a poll showing Trump losing to DeSantis in the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada Republican primaries if they were held today.