Iowa born Hispanics increased caucus turnout by 375% in past two decades

The Iowa Caucuses had an impressive turnout despite a bitter cold snap that blanketed the Hawkeye State with snow.

It did not take long for vote tallies to demonstrate that former President Donald Trump won about 60% of the vote with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 21% and Ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki at about 19%, according to reports from the Associated Press and NBC News.

Trump’s victory runs parallel with a shift among the Hispanic community that is defecting from the Democratic Party and running toward third party candidates and former President Donald Trump.

A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll found that 20% of both Blacks and Latinos are now seeking a third-party alternative, and that Biden is now trailing among Hispanic voters by 5 percentage points, 39%-34%.

This is a huge shift from 2020 when he overshadowed Trump in the demographic by more than 2 to 1, 65%-32%.

As votes are being tallied and examined by demographic, analysts will most likely be taking a close look at whether Trump’s victory was at least partially due to the recent shift in Hispanic voting since the demographic has had a massive upswing in participation in the Iowa Caucus.

According to a survey conducted in 2020 by the Associated Press among 1,600 registered voters eligible to participate in the Republican causes, and an analysis of that survey by UCLA’s Latino Policy & Politics Institute (LPPI), Iowa experienced a 375% increase in the number of Hispanic eligible voters and a 346% increase in Latino registered voters, which occurred from 2004 to 2020.

The study says the increase has been “driven by Iowa-born Latinos who are aging into the electorate, many of whom have immigrant parents.”

Trump’s appeal among Hispanics should come as no surprise as the UCLA LPPI revealed that Latinos seem drawn to outspoken candidates with firm principles.

On the Democratic side of the aisle, the 2020 report found that the overwhelming majority of Latinos favored Sen. Bernie Sanders above the party’s centrist majority candidate, Joe Biden.

The UCLA LPPI found that Hispanics strongly favored Sen. Bernie Sanders across the 32- high-density Latino caucus locations. According to the study, the socialist senator won an estimated 52% of the vote compared to only 15% for then Vice President Joe Biden, 14% for then Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and 11% for Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

Sen. Sanders was so popular among Hispanics that he won a whopping 67% of the vote in 12 Latino caucus locations, areas which represented 21.42 state delegations.

The 2020 report analyzed caucus voting across the state of Iowa to determine the impact that voters of color, namely Latinos and Asian Americans were having, particularly in high density Hispanic areas.

For this year’s 2024 Iowa Caucus, a Wall Street Journal breakdown of votes by demographic suggest that 50% of men voted for Trump, and 20% for both DeSantis and Haley while 52% of women voted for the former president with 23% for DeSantis and 17% for Haley.

In age brackets, Trump won the vote among young Republicans, garnering 53% of those between 18-29, with Haley winning 16% and DeSantis 14%. In this particular category, America First businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who finished a distant fourth overall came in second place with 17% of the vote.

Trump earned 45% of the vote from those between 30-44, 45% from those between 45-64, and 48% of those 65 and above.

DeSantis garnered 24% of the vote from those between 30-44, 20% from those between 45-64, and 25% of those 65 and above.

Haley won 21% of the vote from those between 30-44, 18% from those between 45-64, and 21% of those 65 and above.

While the WSJ breakdown evidences consistent support in the 50-52% bracket for Trump from both men and women, as well as in the 20 percentiles for both DeSantis and Haley, the ethnic vote revealed a a similar pattern.

Whites voted similarly with 51% for Trump, 21% for DeSantis and 19% for Haley.

This year’s Hispanic American Iowa Caucus vote will come into closer focus when the WSJ finishes tallying votes and can report examine how Latinos voted in the 2024 Iowa Caucus.

Recent polls have demonstrated that Hispanics are increasingly ranking issues championed by fiscal conservatives as their priorities.

On Dec. 14, ADN America reported that the National Survey of Latino Voters conducted in November by UnidosUS and Mi Familia Vota—two organizations that has spent decades mobilizing Hispanic voters—found the top three issues concerning the demographic were “inflation/rising cost of living,” “jobs and the economy” and health care costs.

When asked to rank the top three issues of concern, 54% of Latinos named inflation and the increase in cost of living as their top priorities while 44% named jobs and the economy and 33% named health care.

The survey polled 3,037 Latinos, 2,707 registered voters and 330 eligible voters.

The survey also found that housing affordability “have emerged as a new issue” with Arizona, California and Nevada “leading the way.” 

Border security ranked relatively high as the sixth highest priority and education and public-school quality as seventh. 

Hispanics ranked social issues as a lower priority. Abortion ranked only ninth, climate change ranked 12th, and “racial justice” ranked 13th.

This is a developing story.