Hispanics support moderate over progressive Democrat in Chicago mayoral race, says report

Hispanic voters are less likely than White voters to support progressive Democrat Brandon Johnson and more likely than Black voters to vote for moderate Democrat Paul Vallas in the Chicago mayoral race, according to a recent poll.

The poll was conducted by BSP Research for a coalition of Latino and Black nonprofit groups and Northwestern University’s Center for the Study of Diversity and Democracy. Johnson has served as a Cook County Commissioner and Vallas has served as CEO of Chicago Public Schools. 

The report, which was released early this week to NBC Latino said that more than 42% of Hispanics who have already decided who they voting for will support Vallas, who is a non-Hispanic White, while 31% said they would vote for Brandon Johnson, who is Black, in the upcoming April 4 runoff election.

Twenty five percent of Hispanics remain undecided, the poll said.

“The wild card on April 4th is the Latino vote,” Northwestern Associate Professor Jaime Domínguez said in a statement. “And neither candidate appears to have a lock on this electorate. Yet, turnout will be critical given the Latino share of undecideds.”

In totality, the poll showed that both candidates are essentially tied with each of them garnering an estimated 40% of the vote and 20% undecided.

“Nearly half of the Latinos and half of the Black voters who were polled said they had not been contacted about getting out to vote,” said a report published by NBC Latino. “The issue of race is a defining factor in the tight runoff election in one of the nation's most segregated cities.”

Johnson has reportedly performed poorly in Hispanic districts while Vallas has garnered significant support in working and middle class White communities, according to a report published by the Brookings Institution, a liberal think tank.

Johnson fared well in parts of the city where there was a collective of ethnic groups and White progressives.

The upcoming April 4 runoff election is the culmination of a nine-way primary in which Vallas and Johnson finished as the lead candidates. Since neither achieved a majority in the February primary, the race must be decided by a runoff under law.

Chuy Garcia, the primary’s only Hispanic candidate finished fourth. The City of Chicago has never had a Hispanic mayor.

The upcoming April 4 mayoral race comes in the wake of Chicago voters effectively ousting Mayor Lori Lightfoot whose progressive prosecution policies have been criticized as the city continues to undergo a crime wave.

According to a March 2, 2023 Washington Examiner report, Lightfoot “became the latest liberal leader to discover Democratic voters have soured on the Left’s leniency on crime when she became the first mayor of her city in 40 years to lose reelection this week.

“Over the past two years, Democrats who embraced a liberal criminal justice agenda at the city level have found themselves increasingly unwelcome among voters who once applauded their views.”

She first won office in 2019, but only captured 17% of the vote in the 2023 reelection process. She is the first mayor in 40 years to lose reelection in the City of Chicago.