Hispanics lose confidence in Democratic victory in midterm elections

In just two years, the Democratic Party appears to have lost 20% of trust among the Hispanic community regarding its chances of winning control of the Senate in the next midterm elections, according to an ADN America comparative analysis from 2020 and 2022 based on several polls conducted by YouGov and The Economist.

When Hispanics were asked in July 2020 which party they thought would win majority control of the U.S. Senate in the past midterm elections, 49% of respondents said the Democratic Party, compared to a mere 25% who picked Republicans as winners.

Yet, the August 2022 poll casts a very different light, with only 21% of Hispanics saying they see the Democratic Party as the winner, a huge slide of confidence in a Democratic victory, amounting to a 28% drop. 

For 2022, 30% of Hispanics surveyed said they saw the Republican Party as the winner, an increase of 5% compared to answers in 2020.

A significant degree of indecision also appears to be another significant change over the past two years, with 32% saying they were unsure about 2022 versus 16% in 2020, which could indicate that both parties still have some profound work to do to shift perceptions within the community heading into the midterm elections. 

The latest 2022 survey, unlike the 2020 poll, added the question of whether those interviewed believed control of the Senate would be split evenly; 17% chose this response as an option.

Not only did expectations for a Democratic victory in the Senate drop, but there was also a noticeable difference in projections for control of the House. With only 20% of the community expecting a Democratic victory in 2022 versus 59% in 2020. 

One of the factors that may have contributed to the shifting responses is how preferences of Hispanic Americans have changed since, in the past, they have overwhelmingly chosen the Democratic Party. In 2018 alone, an estimated 69% of the community voted for the Democratic party versus 29% for the GOP, according to a Gallup analysis.

Many of the polls suggested that until recently, there has not been any significant departure from the Democratic Party. 

The same analysis also noted that Hispanic party identification for 2021 was 56% Democrats/Democratic leaners and 26% Republicans/Republican leaners. 

Despite party identification, a sample population of the Hispanic community had split responses when asked which party they preferred would win the Senate. 

Twenty-four percent of Hispanics answered that they preferred the Democratic Party to win in 2022 versus 25% who said they preferred the Republican Party. Another 25% said they preferred the Senate to remain split between the two parties, compared to 26% who said they had no preference. 

The same 2022 survey showed a very large preference gap between the two parties among the black community in the United States. In that group, 53% stated they would prefer to see a Senate victory for the Democratic Party.