GOP's midterm gains with Latinos lackluster outside Florida

The Republican Party saw uneven success with their Latino candidates and outreach efforts in a year they were expected to do well, according to results from a leading "progressive" polling firm.

Much of “the GOP narrative of a Latino red wave” was seen in Florida, according to Equis Research pollster Carlos Odio, described by the Cook Political Report as "a progressive organization dedicated to research on Latino voters."

“Compare [Democrat gubernatorial candidate Charlie] Crist (or [Rep. Val] Demings) to previous Dem support in Miami-Dade: the worst under-performance is in the most Hispanic precincts,” Odio tweeted Monday in a long thread about the 2022 midterms.

“Early signs are that GOP gains were greatest among non-Cuban, non-PR voters…the “LatAm” voters among whom Dems got 70% as recently as '16.”

Although Odio acknowledged that Florida had gone “as bad for Dems as everyone says,” the Latino vote outside the Sunshine State was “a picture of stability.”

The Associated Press also noted that the GOP saw “mixed results” in their attempts to attract Latino voters. Any gains Republicans made with Latino voters did not appear to translate to broad electoral victories outside Florida.

“It obviously is not the outcome many of us were expecting, but it still brings hope,” Wadi Gaitan, communications director for the conservative group Libre Initiative, told the AP. “Inroads inspire Latinos and Latinas to look for office.”

In South Texas, Democrats defended two of three heavily Latino districts targeted with Latina Republican candidates. Businesswoman Monica De La Cruz won a newly redrawn district, but Rep. Mayra Flores and Cassy Martinez, a former deputy state director for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, fell to their Democrat challengers.

The AP also mentioned northern Virginia, where Republican Yesli Vega, a former police officer and co-chair of Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s Latino voter coalition in last year’s gubernatorial race, lost to Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger. The race for Virginia’s 7th was seen as an early indicator of how large the predicted “red wave” was going to be.

But Florida was not the only bright spot for Republican Latinos. Others who won include Anna Paulina Luna, an Air Force veteran in Florida, and Oregon’s Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the former mayor of Happy Valley.