Gallup confirms Hispanic and Black defection from Democratic Party as whites remain steady with GOP

A recent Gallup poll is the latest brick in the wall for President Biden’s reelection efforts, offering further evidence that Hispanic voters are leaving the Democratic Party in record numbers.

The poll, which was published Wednesday reported that the lead Democrats once enjoyed among both Hispanic and Black voters continues to diminish and has been chipped away by 20% during Biden’s time in office during the past three years.

Once a surefire stronghold for the left, Democrats have also lost their support among young Hispanic eligible voters in the 18-to-29-year-old age range, leaving the president with only a slight advantage.

The news is especially concerning to top Democrats since Hispanics and Blacks were part of the formula that gave Biden his 7 million vote edge over former President Donald J. Trump in the 2020 election.

Biden did however make up some ground among Americans with some college education and those who have degrees, the poll found.

“These shifts in the party affiliation of key subgroups provide the demographic backstory for how Democrats went from enjoying significant leads over Republicans between 2012 and 2021, to slight deficits in 2022 and 2023,” the research company said in a statement accompanying the survey.

“The 27% of U.S. adults identifying as Democrats and the 43% identifying as or leaning Democratic are both new lows in Gallup’s trend.”

The new report also illuminates a historical low for Democratic support among Hispanic adults. The lead enjoyed by Democrats among Hispanics in 2023 dropped 16 points from 2020 to 2023, from a 28-point lead to 12 points.

The numbers follow the same pattern then candidate Joe Biden saw in Miami-Dade County in 2020 when Democrats were stunned to learn their edge in the South Florida Hispanic dominated county dropped by +27 in 2016 to a slight +7 lead.

Black support has also faltered among Democrats, the Gallup report said. The number of Black adults who identify or lean Democratic dropped from 66% in 2020 to roughly 47% in 2023.

That number represented the smallest gap Gallup has recorded for Democrats since it started collecting data in 1999. The survey research organization said that two-thirds of Black adults polled now identify as or lean Democratic, whereas 19% identify as or lean Republican.

The report says that the Democratic Party’s “12-point advantage among Hispanic adults in 2023 represents a new low in trends dating back to 2011, when Gallup began routinely interviewing in Spanish as well as English.”

Contrary to the shift in Hispanic and Black communities, White adults remained steady with 15-17% more identifying or leaning Republican than Democratic.

While Democrats seem to be losing ground with Black and Hispanic voters, the party has gained support among college-educated Americans or those who have a degree, per Gallup.

Gallup’s poll comes after a series of polls reported by ADN America from UnidosUS, and USA Today which have reported that Hispanics and Blacks have been defecting from the Democratic Party.

The UnidosUS poll reported that Hispanics are now ranking fiscal issues that typically appeal to conservative voters above social justice issues that are more aligned with the Democratic Party while the USA Today poll found that 20% of Hispanics are leaving the Democratic Party and searching for either a third party alternative or defecting to the GOP.

The polls have great significant since, according to a Jan. 10 Pew Research Center poll, Hispanic Americans have become the second fastest growing minority in the United States with a record 1.4 million Latinos turning 18 years old and becoming eligible to vote every year.

A GenForward survey also found 63% of Black voters said they would vote for Biden, 17 percent would back Trump and 20% said they would go for someone else.

That survey also corroborated the UnidosUS poll, which asserted economics were becoming an increasingly concerning issues among Gen Z Hispanics.

“In particular, our data shows that Black and Latinx Gen Zers are disproportionately impacted by inflation, and when asked about their personal financial situation, nearly 76% of Black and 84% of Latinx respondents indicated that they live in financial precarity with little to no emergency savings,” the GenForward report says.

The Gallup data was collected from a series of 2023 surveys among 12,145 adults, and reportedly has a margin of error of 1 percentage point. For the smaller groups, however, the margins of error were purportedly larger, between 2 and 4 percentage points.