Up to 15,000 Russian troops dead one month into Ukraine invasion: NATO

A NATO official on Wednesday estimated that 7,000 to 15,000 Russian troops have died over the past month as Ukrainians have mounted a fierce resistance against the invading Russian forces.

The senior NATO military official anonymously told The Associated Press that the alliance has estimated Russian losses by using information from open-source intelligence, the Ukrainian government, and intentional and unintentional information released by Russia. 

Between 30,000 to 40,000 Russian troops are estimated to have been killed or wounded, the NATO official told the AP.

By comparison, the Soviet Union lost fewer than 15,000 troops during its ten-year invasion of Afghanistan. Looking at a more recent conflict, the United States lost less than 2,500 service members over nearly 20 years in Afghanistan.

Considering that more than 150,000 total Russian troops are estimated to have been involved in the invasion, Russia's causality rate may be as high as 26%.

Jeffrey Edmonds, a former CIA military analyst, told Insider that he thinks 7,000 killed is a high estimate and the real number is more like 4,000 or 5,000. Even the more conservative number is staggering, he said.

"I've seen reports about units being destroyed and things of that nature," Edmonds told Insider about the Russian army. "Typically, we think in the military that if you lose a third of your unit, then you're combat-ineffective because usually, psychologically, one in three dying or being taken out of the fight, your unit typically can't function well after that."

A senior U.S. Defense official told the AP on Wednesday that Russian soldiers appear to be taking up defensive positions 9 to 12 miles outside of Kyiv.

Russian forces appear have stopped their advance into Ukraine's capital, the official anonymously told the AP. The Russian military appears to now be prioritizing the fight in Ukraine's Donbas region in what may be an attempt to cut off Ukrainian troops to stop them from moving west to defend other areas, the official said.

"Over time, I think the population is going to understand the magnitude of this special operation," Edmonds told Insider. "Special operations don't swallow thousands of soldiers."

Conditions are reportedly deteriorating for Russian troops as well. Ukraine's military claimed on Tuesday that Russian forces only have enough supplies for three more days before a breakdown in their supply chain, The Guardian reported Tuesday.