Mexico reports decline in homicide rate despite wave of drug cartel killings in tourist locations

 Homicide rates in Mexico significantly declined for the first time in years in 2022, according to new statistics released on Tuesday by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography. 

The surprising statistical report comes amid a wave of drug cartel killings throughout the country, creating a spike in murders in popular tourist locations such as Cancun and Playa del Carmen. 

According to the statistics, there were 32,223 reported killings in 2022, representing a 9.7% decrease from the homicide rate in 2021, which stood at 35,700. The number represents 25 murders for every 100,000 inhabitants, a decline from 28 seen the previous year. 

Additionally, the rate for 2022 was the lowest since 2016, when there were 20 homicides for every 100,000 inhabitants. The 2022 figures are also lower than the 36,773 in 2020, 36,661 in 2019, and 36,685 in 2018—the three years with the most homicides in Mexico's history.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said the decline is in part due to his “hugs, not bullets” campaign, which seeks to avoid confrontation with gang members and drug cartels and focuses on social and employment programs instead. 

“The strategy of addressing the root causes of violence is beginning to show results,” López Obrador said in his daily press conference. 

"If we continue like this, we're going to end the administration with around a 20% decline in homicides," he added. 

By gender, there were 44.4 homicides per 100,000 men, a decrease from 2021, when the rate was 50.2. For women, there were 5.8 murders per 100 thousand, a decline compared to the rate of 6.1 in 2021.

The states with the highest homicide rates per 100,000 people were Colima (113), Zacatecas (87), Baja California (70), Guanajuato (68), and Sonora (58). In contrast, the states with the lowest rates were Yucatán (2), Coahuila (5), Aguascalientes (6), Durango (7), and Mexico City, Querétaro, and Veracruz (8).

Despite homicide rates declining in 2022, the figure appears to have flattened out in the first half of 2023, according to preliminary figures by police and prosecutors. So far this year, there have been 15,122 killings, compared to 15,381 in the same period of 2022. 

Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography was created in 1983 by presidential decree. The institute describes itself as an autonomous agency of the Mexican government that coordinates statistical and geographical information for the country.