Politics
Trump vs. Desantis 2024: Who do Floridians prefer?
Respondents were asked who did a better job in his role: Ron DeSantis as Governor of Florida or Donald Trump as President of the United States
July 21, 2022 6:30pm
Updated: July 21, 2022 7:34pm
Florida will play an exciting role in defining the Republican nominee in the next presidential election in 2024, considering that two possible candidates, Donald Trump and Ron Desantis, reside in the Sunshine State. While Trump won Florida in the presidential election in both 2016 and 2020, DeSantis appears to be the favorite in Florida's Republican presidential primary, according to two polls released this month.
To make matters starker for Trump, the gap between the two candidates appears to be broad, as DeSantis vastly outpaces Trump among Florida Republicans, according to the poll conducted by Blueprint Polling, which gives DeSantis a 51/39 favorite for the GOP presidential nomination.
The results of the other poll, conducted by Victory Insights, are also not promising for Trump, who the poll projects would lose to DeSantis 61/39. The pollsters interviewed 600 likely Republican primary voters across the state of Florida with a margin of error of 4.1%.
According to the Victory Insights poll, DeSantis led in every metric and would outperform Trump in popularity, likability, enthusiasm, and strong supporters.
"Our new poll conclusively determines that DeSantis is favored to beat Trump in Florida's Republican Primary for U.S. president in 2024. Not only that, but DeSantis' lead over the former president is the largest ever recorded in a publicly-listed 2024 poll," Victory Insights said.
DeSantis's popularity advantage among Floridians has been established for some time now, according to the pollsters.
Yet, the Florida governor cannot become too comfortable, the polling report suggests. While his name is starting to gain prominence within the GOP outside of Florida, and he has been spotted at campaign events and fundraisers in Nebraska and South Carolina in recent months, "his viability against Trump in a potential 2024 bout has been up in the air," Victory Insights said.
Respondents were also asked who did a better job in his role: Ron DeSantis as Governor of Florida or Donald Trump as President of the United States, and interestingly 51% of Florida Republicans believe Trump did a better job as president than DeSantis did as governor.
Although this question, Victory Insights states, went beyond the scope of their poll, they outline several theories to consider when contemplating this question:
"Perhaps voters remember that Trump was unable to win the general election in 2020 and thus are flocking to DeSantis due to his perceived electability. Perhaps Florida Republicans appreciate all that Trump did in his first term in office, but think that a fresh conservative face in the Oval Office could be more effective and exciting," they said.
Despite these results, curiously, 39% of voters surveyed would prefer that if he were to launch his candidacy, Trump would be left unopposed, which is 6% more than those who originally supported him for the nomination.
"This 39% includes some DeSantis voters and some undecideds, suggesting that an early announcement could encourage non-Trump voters to join his camp early and deter other candidates from even running," Victory Insights concluded.
Despite these results, Florida Republican voters generally disagree with the notion that a Trump announcement before the midterm elections would hurt the party's chances of victory in 2022.
As the chart indicates, only 30% of voters believe an impending Trump announcement would hurt Republicans in the midterm elections, compared to 44% who believe it would actually help them.
The remaining 26% of voters are neutral on the issue.
The race may be close in other states as well; according to a poll conducted by WDIV and Detroit News, DeSantis trails Trump by just three points, 45-42, among likely Republican voters. While Trump continues to dominate non-college-educated voters, DeSantis prevails among the college-educated, New York Magazine reported.
In another poll conducted in New Hampshire, Republican voters also considered DeSantis to have a better chance of beating President Joe Biden in the upcoming election, Newsweek reported.
