Miami Herald, Florida Democrats doubt recent polls that have Demings leading Rubio

A new report from the Miami Herald is questioning the validity of three recent polls that took the State of Florida by surprise, suggesting that Democrat Rep. Val Demings is either tied or ahead of longtime U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio in a hotly contested Senate rate. Rubio has maintained a steady lead throughout the duration of the race and the recent polls are the first sign there may be a crack in the renowned Cuban American Republican’s armor—or not.

The Herald reported that “some skepticism of the new numbers is warranted — even according to Democrats in the state.”

The most recent survey from the University of North Florida released Tuesday said Demings had 48% support from registered voters with only 44% backing Rubio and seven percent of respondents supporting “someone else.”

The UNF poll was released after two other surveys were published last week, which said the Senate race was tied. But those polls came from two Florida based progressive organizations. They both suggested fthe two candidates each had 45% of the vote.

Another poll released last week from a pro-choice abortion organization, EMILY’s List also suggested both Demings and Rubio had 46% support. EMILY’s List, which supports female Democrats running for office and supporting abortion rights endorsed Demings.

The widespread reason for Demings purported new lead is the outrage felt by Democrats and pro-choice moderates across the state who are reacting to the Supreme Court’s recent ruling, which overturned Roe v. Wade. Some media outlets have suggested the polls are a reflection of the concern pro-choice voters have, tilting the Senate race to the left as Floridians purportedly flock to answer President Joe Biden’s call to take back the Senate to codify Roe.

The Herald says however that, “collectively, the data would seem to belie the widespread view both in Washington and Florida that Rubio is on track to easily win reelection… and it would fit a broader national pattern of Democratic candidates for Senate — in states ranging from Pennsylvania to Georgia — showing better-than-expected support less than three months before November’s election.”

Rubio’s campaign does not believe the polls, and remain confident they still maintain a strong position.

“This is Florida, and we’ve always said it would be a tight race,” Rubio campaign spokeswoman Elizabeth Gregory told the Herald. “This is a choice between Marco’s proven record of results, and Val Demings who votes 100% of the time for [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi’s failed agenda. Given that choice, we are more than confident that we will win.”

The new University of North Florida poll is a surprising shift from its findings in February, at which time the university found that Rubio was ahead of Demings by 12 points, 46% to 34%.

“The more Florida voters know about Chief Demings, the more they like her,” said Christian Slater, a Demings campaign spokesman in an interview with the Herald.

The comment referred to Demings history as Orlando Police Chief.

“That’s why we are laser-focused on aggressively introducing her to every corner of the state and bringing our message to every community. And our grassroots fundraising makes it possible.”

Political experts and strategists from both sides of the aisle believe the shift could be a result of Demings digital and television advertising campaigns, which have been more frequent that Rubio’s. Demings has outraised most candidates across the U.S., raising more than $47 million as of Aug. 3.. according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

But “many of those same political operatives, however, retain some skepticism that Rubio’s race is as tight as the recent polls make it seem,” the Herald reported. “Two of the surveys, for instance, come from Democratic or political organizations. And even nonpartisan polls, such as the one from the University of North Florida, have a spotty track record in recent elections, showing greater support for Democratic candidates in statewide races than what they would ultimately receive.”

The newspaper pointed out that the RealClearPolitics polling average for the 2020 presidential election in Florida showed Biden up by almost one percentage point, despite former President Donald Trump ultimately winning the state by more than three percentage points, a four percent error.

Another questionable outlier is the fact that the recent UNF survey shows former Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, now behind Democratic Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried by four percentage points.

“The UNF poll is clearly an outlier,” a Crist campaign official said.