Experts warn of China turning Cuba and the Caribbean Into a 'Chinese Lake'

China’s growing influence in Cuba and the broader Caribbean region has raised concerns among U.S. experts, who warn that Beijing’s expanding economic and military presence could pose a strategic threat to the United States.

China has significantly expanded its influence in the region through economic investments, diplomatic ties, and military cooperation, particularly with authoritarian regimes like Cuba. Experts warn that these efforts are part of a broader strategy to turn the Caribbean into a “Chinese lake,” according to a Newsweek report published on Sunday.

According to World Trade Organization data, Chinese manufacturing exports surged to $1.81 trillion in 2023, a 30-fold increase from 2002, while the U.S. global trade deficit exceeded $1.2 trillion. Chinese trade with the Caribbean skyrocketed from $1 billion in 2002 to $8 billion in 2019, including $6.1 billion in exports and $1.9 billion in imports.

China’s Deepening Ties With Cuba

Cuba has been one of China’s most loyal allies in the region for decades, with strong economic and military cooperation. A significant uptick in this relationship was observed in 2021, following Cuba’s July 11 (11J) protests, when Chinese paramilitary forces trained Cuban elite security units responsible for suppressing dissent. The Brigada Especial Nacional (BEN), a unit under Cuba’s Ministry of the Interior, reportedly received tactical training from China’s People’s Armed Police (PAP), a paramilitary force specializing in riot control and counterterrorism.

Sources told ADN Cuba that PAP training in Cuba began approximately six years before the 2021 protests, focusing on sniper tactics, intervention strategies, and specialized training for elite Cuban security forces. This collaboration underscores China’s role in bolstering the Cuban regime’s ability to suppress political opposition.

Beyond infrastructure projects and military cooperation, China is also strengthening its diplomatic and cultural footprint in communist Cuba. In May 2024, Beijing and Havana resumed direct flights between the two countries. The Cuban regime has also introduced visa exemptions for Chinese citizens with ordinary passports, making travel between both nations easier.

As part of this growing collaboration, China was invited to be the Guest of Honor at FITCuba 2025, one of the Caribbean’s largest tourism fairs, set to take place in Havana from April 30 to May 3, 2025.

According to official Chinese figures, 27,000 Chinese tourists visited Cuba in 2024, more than 50% increase compared to 2023. Chinese Ambassador to Cuba, Hua Xin, said that the island is becoming an increasingly attractive destination for Chinese travelers, further cementing China’s economic presence in the Caribbean.

Military Bases and Surveillance Concerns

Beyond direct military training, suspicions have grown over potential Chinese military bases in Cuba. A 2024 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) identified four strategic bases on the island, primarily used for signals intelligence (SIGINT) operations, which involve intercepting sensitive communications.

While Havana denies these claims, U.S. intelligence reports have long pointed to Chinese and Russian surveillance operations on Cuban soil, raising fears that these facilities could be used for espionage against the United States.

China’s Economic Expansion in the Caribbean

China’s economic influence has also surged across the Caribbean. By 2022, ten Caribbean nations, including Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, had joined Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This massive infrastructure program allows China to expand its economic control over strategic locations through investments in ports, roads, and energy projects.

Evan Ellis, a professor at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, emphasized that no other region in the Western Hemisphere receives as much Chinese military and security assistance per capita as the Caribbean. Beijing has provided Caribbean nations with military vehicles, police equipment, and naval support, further strengthening its foothold in the region.

Evan Ellis, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, specializing in Latin American-China relations, explain to Newsweek that per capita, no other part of the Western Hemisphere receives as many visits from its police and defense officials to two Chinese military institutions, as many gifts of vehicles and police and military equipment, visits from Chinese hospital ships, and other forms of military diplomacy [from the People's Liberation Army] as the Caribbean does.

"Although I don't believe that Chinese companies seek to expand in the region primarily for military purposes, the potential strategic and military advantages of their commercial presence—as well as the political and defense relationships they cultivate—are clear to both the People's Liberation Army and the Chinese government," Ellis said to Newsweek. 

Christopher Sabatini, a Latin America specialist at Chatham House, also stressed the potential impact of the U.S. freezing or reducing funding for civil society initiatives in the Caribbean, warning that such cuts have inadvertently benefited China.

"That funding is gone," Sabatini said. "None of the NGOs that previously received U.S. support will suddenly align with China, but cutting those funds essentially handed Beijing a massive gift, as many of these groups already have ties to Chinese interests. It’s a self-inflicted wound—Washington has ceded ground to autocrats."

John Lee, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, echoed these concerns, stressing that the U.S. must provide viable alternatives if it hopes to counter China’s growing influence.

"There's no point in worrying about China's expanding presence if these countries aren’t given alternatives—such as fair access to financing and markets," Lee said. "The Trump administration will have to balance legitimate concerns over protecting its domestic economy with the geopolitical necessity of maintaining influence in the region."

The Strategic Threat to the United States

China’s activities in Cuba and the Caribbean represent more than just economic expansion—they signal a growing geopolitical challenge to the United States in its own hemisphere. With increased military training, suspected surveillance bases, and deep economic entrenchment, China’s influence in Cuba and beyond could reshape the balance of power in the region, turning the Caribbean into a Chinese-controlled strategic zone just 90 miles off the U.S. coast.

As tensions between Washington and Beijing continue to rise, experts warn that ignoring China’s moves in the Caribbean could have long-term consequences for U.S. national security.